自愛美德

微量貸款（microfinance）在發展中地區有肯定的作用（國內譯作小額貸款，並不貼切，因為借出的金額比小額還要小）。甚麼是微量貸款？很多發展中社區貧窮而且沒有活力，是因為社區缺乏商業活動。缺乏商業活動是由於社區中的人民沒有資本就是想做些小生意也不行。微量貸款提供資金給想做小生意的居民。資金多少? 比如說兩百美元可以給一個木匠家庭買些木板、工具做些家具售萱。五百塊錢給另一個家庭讓他們開一家小雜貨店。一仟元開個小農場。如此類推，一個家庭用少許錢買工具雜貨, 雜貨店就有生意了。雜貨店賺了錢，買農場的疏果。之後，農場又從家具店買家品。商業活動就是這樣運作起來。

Kiva (www.kiva.org) 是其中一家微量貸款機構。Kiva集資支持很多小企業。你也可以借出二十五美元作為投資。你還可以選擇借給波多黎各的養豬戶或者是非洲的小商店。借出的錢是有利息的。當然，有壞賬風險。但損失二十五美元，對你來說又有多少應响呢？我建議你也到Kiva的網頁溜覽一下。

亞當史密斯 (Adam Smith) 在他晚期作品《道德情操論》(The Theory of Moral Sentiments) 裡面說，行善是美德，自愛（prudence）也是美德。甚麼是自愛？就是不要成為社會的負累。大致上, 這裡的意思是, 與其抽稅去養活生活有問題的人, 不如協助自愛的人過得更好的生活。微量貸款讓發展中社區居民自食其力正是行善自愛的典範。而且微量貸款已經發展成一門賺錢的生意。很多大銀行，例如Citibank, 都有微量貸款的部門。就我所見，那些小商人然活在貧窮的地方，他們是自愛的。

相反只知他人要善行, 不知自己要自愛, 就會變成一個「搵著數」的社會。例如多年前看本地的劣質新聞報道,訪問一個半睡狀態的淡金髮青年(即一個矇眼金毛)及他的母親。話說那金毛兒子由於會考成績不好（我相信是成績劣等才對）, 所以無法升學。母視向電台訴說自己兒子想讀書, 希望政府能多創造預科學額云云。那金毛兒子十七年來混混沌沌, 一生人從來未讀過一本書, 九年免費教育就是教到他每天唱K、打機, 你對我說現在你想讀書?不如二人做母子楝篤笑好過啦。實際上那母親是還不是埋怨為什麼政府不多養她的兒子兩年。我認為, 如果一個捉襟見肘的人自力更生是自愛美德, 那對金毛母子的行為, 實為行惡。

人類退化

單看人類的演化，很難相信達爾文進化論的真確性。怎麼談起的呢？剛剛見到幾個形似女子約十來歲的人類。亂穿衣物，紅紅綠綠，十足馬騮（當然她們（一共三人）認為自己十分潮）。三人又高談闊論，努力地表現自己的無知。彷彿越是無知越蠢就越漂亮，越酷。那副德性叫人馬上想到，她們可能都是飯來不張口一族（飯來張口已經是她們上代的事了，這班紅紅綠綠的十來歲 － 要跟另一群生活艱苦，但勤力讀書，努力工作的十來歲分別出來－ 飯來都不張口，還怪父母弄些高澱粉質東西給她們，讓她們發育）。

看她們的言行舉止，叫人難以想像優質的精子願意進入這樣的身體。但偏偏就是又更低級數的男生喜歡獀皮猴（不是Frank Sinatra）。人類就是這樣渤離進化論。大前硏一的「低IQ時代」，也是說明這種現像，只是大前老師講得比較委宛而已。如果連優秀的日本也落得這個地部，那麼一個吃飽無憂米的第三世界香港，人類退化成都都鳥又有何出奇？只是Dodo鳥兩個世紀前就不幸遇到人類，所以我們只能在博物館裡才見到這種可愛的大鳥。我們不知甚麼時候「飯來不張口」才遇到那根讓都都鳥絕種的大棒？

為富不仁，貴人責任

中國人說， 為富不仁，為仁不富。把商人放到社會最低層，像印度的賤民(dalit) ，實有其道理的。君不見香港的富人巧取豪奪，貪婪無道，說甚麼富貴浮雲，骨子裡拼命斂財, 妄顧人命。所有人都看得一清二楚。這樣得人怎會贏得尊敬？難怪中國看不起富人，尤其是商人，是因為他們為富不仁。又看最近海南酒店新春期間加價三倍，可見一班。所謂君子愛財，取之有道，中國人通通忘了。

西方排猶，還不是猶太人太聰明，賺錢多，付出少，又自高自大（甚麼特選民族），令大家不快－起碼表面上是這樣吧。我覺得，人們岐視你，總有期原因，不可能無端端憎你。文化差異可以說得過，但不全面。 你沒做錯，但民族的共業（所有族人體行為，比如說，你的民族殺了人家的救主）個人也要承的。

但是西方人也談貴人的責任 (Noblesse Oblige), 簡單的說就是發財立品。西方人認為貴人，包括富有的、有智慧的、有權力的、有能力的，都有其責任。貴人有很多權利，比方說，教育，見識，社會地位，但他們應要付出更多。有錢的出錢，有智的獻計，有權的行公義，有能的管治國家，對社會盡力。

大英帝國優越的地方不是建立日不落帝國， 也不只是讓美國獨立。而是在1215年令英國貴族已令（逼）皇帝限制自己的權力，簽立大憲章(Magna Carta)。西方的憲法就此成形。而是她的司法制度，由貴族當法官。 那些紳士們擁有封地，生活無休 (gentlemen of independent means), 所以不能（易）受賄(incorruptible)，是最佳的法官人選。 美國聯邦法庭的大法官也是按同一道理（原則）任命, 一經任命就不會因壓力掉官。地位untouchable － 所以不懼政治壓力。而是英國，如南非的孟德拉（Nelson Mandela）所說，是一個教殖民地推翻宗主國的國家。這就是大英帝國。她離開一個殖民地的時候，總教那地方黯然神傷。

民智高低

中國人一向都自大，五千年文化，春秋戰國百家爭鳴的確了不起。先秦哲賢, 萬世留芳。如果你是春秋的人當然可以自大。但戰國以後，哲學、文化都乏善足陳。原因很簡單 – 大一統中央集權， 說孔孟，行韓非。思想自由沒了，還有甚麼文化，還說甚麼哲學，還談甚麼治世？ 藝術還可以。人文科學外強中乾。碰到西方Enlightenment西人學希臘先哲說 'Man, the measure of all things.' 立時比了下去。到了明清實已糜爛不堪。到了清高宗（乾隆）中國五千年的福給他享盡了。之後的事不用饒舌矣。還自大甚麼？香港人嗎？更弱，自以為亞洲先進, 中不成西不就。以前有大英「射住」都學不到丁點兒經國之術。現在在中共強勢之下，短視無知懦弱更見一班。看中產階級整天談國際視野，要子女讀甚麼國際學校，話題離不開紅酒美食，犬儒無知傲慢，生活實像豬一般。草根的像是民智未開，不思進取，貪心自私，因循苟且，成事不足。香港的服務業尤其反智。一天在小巴上那司機吭聲跟友人在電話上說這小巴沒有收音機，工作時很悶。司機聲浪之大，已達嘈音境界。還說無收音機聽？莫非請你來聽歌煲粥乎？不要跟我說香港是先進地區了。說這裡是發展中地區也許侮辱了泰國。日本的士司機的「任務」是把乘客「舒適地送到目的地」。日本的計程車, 一塵不染, 車長帶白手套整齊製服, 彬彬有禮。香港的，一個字 -- 臭。國人都說失落了的古都長安從日本的京都裡尋回。所謂禮失求諸野。誰禮誰野，如魚飲水，冷暖自知吧。

Suddenly with almost US$770 billion worth of US treasuries on hand, Japan came back to be the top foreign creditor of the United States, rather reluctantly I guess. The Japanese felt ecstatic when this burden was passed on to its large neighbour 2 years ago and was quite pleased to be the first runner-up. With an extremely large defence budget of close to US$ 50 billion a year, Japan has the world's most advanced military system. However, it is not independent - the self-defence forces are very much connected to the US defence strategy. As such it has little to say when coming to buying US treasuries and does not bear the power that a normal creditor has. But China is quite an independent nation which can exercise what a creditor should, for example, offloading a little bit of its holding if it is worried about the debtor's repayment ability.

Having said that, I do not believe China will truly offload its holding to the extent that it will devalue the US. First, devalued US dollar affects China as much as the US. Secondly, a majority of the national debt of the US is owned by its own institutions. Foreign holding, totally about US$ 3.6 trillion constitutes about 30% of total debt outstanding (over US$ 12 billion). 50% is held by the Federal Reserve and intragovernmental holdings. China and Japan combined hold about 12%. While US$ 700 billion is not a small figure, and any large scale offloading shakes the market, percentage-wise it won't kill this large debtor........

It is a cold winter of the properties market in the PRC. However, when winter has come, as the saying goes, would spring be far away? Well, I am not sure when the spring will come but we know that during winter time, there are a lot of bargains. Please beware that it is going to be a Darwinian world just before spring. I suggest we do a bit of research before buying. My favourites are still 1224 CC Land; and 272 Shui On Land. Also, I want to add a few more: 016 Sun Hung Kai Properties; 390 China Railway (as I said before this is also a properties developer) and 337 SPG Land.

Some background - The central government's measures to suppress the properties market indicate that it is a market too important to be let burst or get killed. Figures speak themselves: in 2009, sale of land gave the treasury CNY 1,500 billion or 44% of annual GDP or 22% of total national revenues (CNY 6,800 billion). Sale of land contributed to 41% of Shanghai's budget - excluding the peripheral business directly benefited by the land sale and properties development. Therefore, while in the near future, we see the properties market out of favour, I am very confident that we should start accumulating some of the strongest participants who can acquire others in order to strengthen themselves in this year.

I shall start with 272 Shui On Land. This stock is always underrated, for whatever reasons. I believe it is probably because Mr. Vincent Lo lacks excitement but that's exactly what I like about this stock. No matter how you see it, we should buy it in small lots. As a prudent man, I shall look at its financials first.

The View of The Day on 2 January 2010 - 文明的軌跡

When I was reviewing my Views of The Day, I found a short writing on happiness, civilised country and civilisation. I think it is worth being recorded on this blog as this writing is a typical one that casts a cold eye on the world.

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Lord Clark mentioned in his documentary series Civilisation that he did not know what civilisation was but he would recognise it when seeing it. Chip Tao (陶傑) appears to know a thing or two on this. He spotted only 2 civilised countries in Asia - Bhutan and Japan. Civilisation cannot be defined but can only be experienced. Mr. Tao happened to talk about the happiness of one of these two only civilised countries in Asia.

I am, to a certain extent, more agreeable to the Bhutanese happiness than some other happiness index that, for example, compares Japan with the Philippines. To me, Filipinos' apparent happiness looks more like mental problems.

As I believe dire poverty and happiness are mutually exclusive, so unless you're truly in nirvana, certain amount of material well being (optimal but not excessive), for example, a shelter, clean water and food, is elemental to one' mental well being. The latter is what happiness is built on.

But civilisation naturally implies far more than a few good ideas (Washington, Jefferson and Adams talked about the pursuit of happiness but the United States say more than of happiness). So I totally agree that Japan is a civilisation (seminal, resilient, unique, influential, powerful and capable of generating significant philosophers, writers, politicians and scientists). Bhutan is yet to demonstrate most of these attributes.

So Bhutan is good and civilised. She is not yet a civilisation.

新世代良師

2010年01月02日

今天的亞洲，只有兩個文明國家，一個是日本──這一點，大家早知道了──另一個，正在得到國際社會的尊敬，就是喜馬拉雅山麓的小國不丹。

不丹國王首先提出「快樂指數」這個新觀念。國王認為：國家的國民生產總值（ GDP），絕不代表國民的快樂總值（ Gross National Happiness）。

憑此一高論，不丹全國國民，都應該分攤今年的諾貝爾和平獎。因為不丹國王的先進思想，開始在西方發酵，英國保守黨魁金馬倫受到啟迪，提出以「國民幸福總值」（ Gross National Wellbeing），簡稱 GNW，來代替日漸過時的 GDP。

美國最新調查；金融海嘯一年來，美國人比以前更開心了，美國經濟在二○○一年和一九九二年都衰退過，一九七三年石油危機、國民都心情抑鬱，只是這一次反常，房產變了銀主盤，信用卡沒收，國民反而心情好起來。

為什麼呢？喜歡模仿西方、「外國有先例」的特區高官和高等華人知識份子們，小心聽了：因為「西方」出了一個社會心理學的新名堂：叫做「慾望通脹之終結」（ End of Expectations Inflation）。

什麼叫「慾脹」呢？就是隨着消費增長帶來的通脹，人的消費慾，必然領先在儲蓄之先。也就是說，經濟好景時，人的慾脹隨着通脹，超越了本身的消費力。

金 融海嘯爆發了，銀行爆煲，「消費者」本來無休止的慾望也跟着爆了煲。雙爆煲之下，就像一個人死了，靈魂脫離了情慾的軀殼，在「中陰身」的階段，最初悲憤而 哀傷，但後來反而寧靜而祥和，覺得無所謂死，也無所謂生。不錯，經濟還會復甦的，但經濟再復甦，就像投胎輪迴。這時閣下開始享受這等飄逸自由、無重無晦的 澄空之感，反倒不想輪迴了，佛家說，這種境界，就是湼槃。

不丹國民的一生，就生活在入世的湼槃之中。入世而湼槃，好像很矛盾，但不丹國民沒有信用 卡，不必做豪宅的房奴，他們以織綿為業，一方石室，一座陽台，仰頭就見到喜馬拉雅山皚藍的靈空，永遠不必為剛做了什麼會計師律師而「住不上港島半山」而發 愁投訴，不丹遠離愚昧，前有達賴喇嘛學說，後有不丹理論，現在成為「西方」的良師。

所謂 GNW，不需要一大堆「東西方文化」加哈佛 MBA的理論，粵語有一句現成話：「財散人安樂」。

美國人終於感受到財散的安樂了。上一代的廣東人，智慧不下於不丹國王。

可憐夜半虛前席, 不問蒼生問鬼神

這兩句詩是話說漢文帝夜半緊急召見賈誼的一段事。賈誼是漢代大儒，才高八斗，備受敬重。有一次，漢文帝突然在半夜緊急召見賈誼，禮遇的空出前面的位子讓賈誼坐下。賈誼以為漢文帝有很重要的國家大事要商量，所以也就兢兢業業，如履薄冰地等候備詢，不料所問的盡是鬼神的事，和天下蒼生無關的話題，賈誼很感失望。

香港人很多有「原始人」的特色。除了爭先擁後之外，也喜愛茹毛飲血 (如胡亂吃些生魚便以為是刺身的人為數不少)。雖然這些都十分「原始」, 我想說的不是這些。但香港人不必太開心，以為有麼好東西可說。我想說的是人類在演化過程中殘留了點滴的對大自然的敬畏所產生的本能意識。這些點滴的殘留進而演化變成不同宗教。有的強而有力在帝國強權人前人後呼風喚雨。有的祥和地躲在人類文明的花園，散發著如花般的幽香。我想, 一個人類的文明對宗教發展有決定性的應響。當然高度文明內裡也有劣質宗教。這與個人群體的優劣有莫大的關係。所謂樹大有枯枝、族大有乞兒也。

如果我說香港「文明」, 對羅馬, 奧匈, 大英委實不敬。說香港文化, 也矮化了, 劣化了「文化」一辭。 把辭語濫用是香港「次文盲」一大特色。此處不贅。

香港人的民間宗教觀屬於劣等。從每年由多名鄉紳（對不起, 他們不是英國的country gentlemen) 到某某廟求韱為預測香港未來一年運程如何可見一班。若所求為下韱, 傳媒（包括主要新聞）必煞有介事大肆報道。但這些所謂鄉紳、達官、貴人真正為人民做的我想很少。最多的就是為利是圖, 貪得無厭（為自己怎樣賺更多的錢, 其實他們已擁有不少）。但劣質的香港大眾卻很受這些所謂天意。君不見坊間大量玄學書籍達至泛濫地步。這些都令我想起李商隱的詩。

我無意批評宗教觀。也無需像陶建時(Richard Dawkins)般攻擊宗教。我批評的是香港人原始人部落殘留竟依然那麼深。沒有因時進化。我批評的是香港的官，平庸無能，只是一幫鄉下佬。雖沒怪力亂神（哈，他們太無知，這也不懂 － 不信，你問問他們甚麼是奇門，甚麼是遁甲？甚麼是煉丹？）但一無是處，屍位素餐。

Now, let's continue with my industrials selection. In today's View, I share with you this industrial company, Chongqing Machinery & Electric Ltd (2722). Its last announcement back in September 2009 was a disappointment - interim profit down 21％ to CNY 215.4 million. However, recently CME appeared to be a fave share of mutual funds so the potential should not be ignored. Moreover, CME is also likely to be a beneficiary of government's development in electricity network and alternative energy capabilities.

Chongqing is a dynamic and hugely populated city. It is likely that the change in municipal management may trigger a more active strategy in the development of the city.

I believe we should accumulate the stock whenever it comes down below HK$ 1.80. Now the decline in share price is in phase with the decline in trading volume and a flattening RSI. At HK$ 1.76 (closing before Chinese New Year), it is good value.

Source: ET Net

Life on The Verandah

Sometimes I am confused and feel stranded while facing the elements of life. But I never lose focus on two things - the philosophies in my life and the better things in my life. And I certainly believe (a verb I use carefully) man must trod his way forward and, in the passage of his journey, learn a thing or two in profundity, in a manner resembling the intelligent people of the past. Why people of the past? Because they were focused. Taking as an example a French who lived 'not so long ago', at the time of Napoleon. Jacque-Louis David, who painted pictures and painted pictures in his life. He painted with a message, be it political or artistic. He painted in unparallelled skills and power. His pictures are immortal and David becomes immortal. Rewinding the time line further back, in a world where money and power were not considered the singular scale to measure respectability (albeit power, inevitably, made the respectable more respectable in the eyes of the commoners), we see someone as powerful as Marcus Aurelius whose immortality lay not only on the fact that he served as an emperor of the most powerful empire ever on Earth but also on his being a philosopher. The philosopher-king was an ideal for the ancient intellectuals. Marcus Aurelius, himself a Stoic, wrote the famous Meditations. He focused on the philosophy that led man to a life of happiness with doctrines very much in tune with Christianity, except that Stoicism did not offer life after death, which, in the eyes of a handful of intelligent people, represented bribes to the prospective believers, and which was, to this handful, unacceptable from the perspective of respectability. I believe at the time all of the intelligent people, regardless of what they chose to believe and which path they chose to go, stayed focused and this was what made them truly successful (not those cheap successes you can find in those 'How to be Successful' guide), remarkably resilient in the passage of time and worthy of our understanding. If you look at today, all of us are distracted. In this context we shall never see someone like Jacque-Louis David or Marcus Aurelius.

As such, trying to shovel aside the confusion and keep my thought neater, I come to a conclusion that my blog, Life on The Verandah, is henceforth fully dedicated to philosophy and the another one, my first one back in 2002, Better Things in Life, shall, naturally, focus on the better things in life, including good food, fine art, books worth sharing and my novel with no pre-set message other than a criterion that all that's mentioned must be, again, better things in life, which, in a sense, looks like flows of consciousness, evidential in revealing the existence of time. Cast A Cold Eye is a vehicle to hold my Views of The Day and continues to cast a cold eye on what happens in this world. It is the only blog in which I shall sometimes use Chinese language and one for which time is of essence.

Toyota's Not the Only One - Six Myths About Car Recalls

I believe the Toyota problem teaches us a couple of things:

1. 'Why should one tell the truth if it's to one's advantage to tell a lie?' This, according to Ray Monk, author of Ludwig Wittgenstein, The Duty of Genius, was the subject of Ludwig Wittgenstein's earliest recorded philosophical reflections. Finding no satisfactory answer, Wittgenstein concluded that there was, after all, nothing wrong with lying under such circumstances. Wittgenstein is arguably the greatest philosopher of the 20th century. Even before reading the article entitled Toyota's Not the Only One on Seeking Alpha, I did believe that recall was not rare among automakers and I could not believe there could be no massive recalls from manufacturers as worse as Ford or Chrysler. Perhaps it is to one's advantage to tell the lie rather than be honest about one's own problems.

2. No mass production can be superior in quality no matter you are Toyota or Daimler-Benz. 40 years ago, a Mercedes-Benz was a masterpiece - a quintessence of engineering and craftsmanship, but the Germans, learning a bad habit from the Anglo-Saxons, began to cut corners in order to save a few Deutsche marks. Anglo-Saxons were particularly mean so they thought of a way to save a dozen more dollars than the Germans by moving manufacturing plants to cheap countries such as Mexico, India or China. The Japanese, keen to catch up with their even better dexterity, thought of even more ways to cut down costs. So, among other means, Toyota used common parts for various models. This saved a lot of money but planted the seed of the problem that arises today. Also, those cheap countries are to blame. That these countries are cheap has a fundamental reason. That these countries never go expensive imply another reason. All-in-all, it is like to tell a Hong Kong youngster to assemble a car. He won't do it. He simply can't do it because he will just ignore your instruction. He is lazy and useless but luckily he is 'nourished' by his parents. He won't starve to death - he won't even get hungry. He is led into believing that he is not lazy but only sick - those psychologists love this tune. But he is lazy and he is useless. He simply can't assemble a car. In other countries such as Mexico or China, millions of people will starve to death if they do not work for food so they must learn to build a car. They do because if they don't they will be dead. But do you really think the cars are well built when 8.5 million of them are built in these countries every year with parts from over all the world and software from different vendors? I shall only believe a Rolls Royce, hand-built in England by a team of passionate technicians, is of high quality. I do not believe 1 million Camrys, 3 millions Comforts and 4 millions Corollas are 'high quality' because a Toyota logo is hammered into the back. No. Quality depends on craftsmanship - that's why in the context of quality assurance Rolls Royce is good Toyota is bad.

I've talked to much. I would like to share with you a short writing on Seeking Alpha, on 10 February 2010, by Rick Newman, Chief Correspondent of U.S. News:

With all the hype surrounding Toyota's (TM) quality problems, you'd think a recall notice in your mailbox is the equivalent of a pink slip or IRS audit. Hardly. Toyota is certainly reeling from recalls of nearly 5 million U.S. cars, including top sellers like the Camry, Corolla, RAV4, and Prius. But recalls are a fact of life in the auto business, usually generating little news or heartache for car owners. With Toyota's woes mushrooming into a media and political feeding frenzy, here are some of the mounting misconceptions about recalls:

They're rare. On the contrary, millions of vehicles are recalled every year. So far this year, Toyota's recalls have obviously dominated the news, but they haven't been the only ones. Chrysler has recalled about 20,000 vehicles to fix a clip on the brakes. And Honda (HMC) has had two major recalls. One is to fix a power window switch on 141,000 Fit subcompacts that could melt or catch fire if water leaks in. Another, affecting 129,000 Ridgeline pickup trucks, is to place a protective cover around the wires for an A/C blower motor, to prevent damage that can occur if a passenger kicks the motor. In December 2009 alone, there were at least eight separate recalls that each involved thousands of passenger cars.

They reflect an urgent safety problem. By their nature, recalls involve flaws that could affect safety, but most of the time, there's no immediate risk. Recalls often involve problems that are rare but could cause a serious problem if they occur. So the risk to any given driver is often remote, even though there may be a few high-profile incidents traced to the problem. That seems to be the case with Toyota's gas-pedal problems: The likelihood of sudden acceleration is extremely low, but with more than 4 million vehicles potentially affected, even a tiny rate of occurrence would make it a big problem. Even Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is confused about how pressing the danger is. He said recently that anybody with a recalled model should stop driving it—then he corrected himself to say owners should simply bring their cars to a dealer to get them fixed, whenever possible.

They're handled by the government. Regulators certainly have a role, but the majority of recalls are carried out by manufacturers without government involvement. Automakers sometimes resist a full-blown recall, since it means they have to foot the bill for every repair. And occasionally, they'll argue that a problem affects convenience or reliability but not safety and therefore doesn't require a recall. If regulators at the Department of Transportation disagree, they can persuade an automaker to order a recall or order one themselves. The Toyota recalls are "voluntary," which means they were issued by the automaker—but LaHood has said that the government forced Toyota to take the drastic action.

Automakers usually know in advance about problems that lead to recalls. Sometimes they do, but many problems are discovered only after years of use under real-world conditions. The notorious August 2000 recall of 14.4 million Firestone tires used on Ford (F) Explorers, for example, occurred after 4,300 complaints about tread separation piled up for nine years and Ford and Firestone fought a bitter duel over which of them was at fault. Even government investigators had a hard time figuring out if certain Explorer crashes were due to faulty tires, the vehicle's high center of gravity, or other factors. It's also worth noting that a huge controversy in the 1980s over sudden acceleration in the Audi 5000 was ultimately attributed to driver error, with a simple fix being to space the gas and brake pedals a bit farther apart. But Audi sales plunged nonetheless, partly because the company was perceived as arrogant.

Recalls are ruinous. Usually not. For owners, it typically means a trip to the dealer and a free repair. Big recalls can cost automakers a lot of money—which is one of the strongest incentives for them to avoid problems in the first place. But most recalls amount to the cost of doing business, and automakers tend to bounce back from safety controversies. The faulty Firestone tires on Ford Explorers, for example, were linked to 148 deaths and 500 injuries, causing both companies deep financial and reputational damage. But the Explorer remained popular, and Firestone continued to sell tires. Ford is still dealing with another huge recall—involving faulty cruise control switches on 9 million vehicles—yet that hasn't pre-empted a recent surge in Ford's reputation or the popularity of its vehicles.

They indicate poor quality. Excessive recalls might, but virtually every manufacturer has to occasionally fix problems that slip through the manufacturing process. Automobiles are complicated machines with dozens of computers and thousands of moving parts, subject to bad roads, extreme temperatures, lousy drivers, and outright abuse. An automaker that never issued recalls, in fact, might be hiding problems instead of fixing them. Toyota's challenge now is to convince customers that it's committed to making them whole and permanently solving problems, not just dodging blame, evading lawsuits, or taking the cheap way out. Others have done it.

The Leopard (氣蓋山河) (1963)

The passage of Kai-Bong Chou makes me recollect Luciano Visconti's 1963 movie The Leopard starring Burt Lancaster and Alain Delon. The movie was an adaptation to Giuseppe di Lampedusa's eponymous novel. The movie, as the New York Times describes it, is a 'stunning visualisation of a mood of melancholy and nostalgia at the passing of an age'.

The description of the Criterion Collection DVD reads 'the film recreates, with nostalgia, drama, and opulence, the tumultuous years when the aristocracy lost its grip and the middle classes rose and formed a unified, democratic Italy. Burt Lancaster stars as the aging prince watching his culture and fortune wane in the face of a new generation, represented by his upstart nephew (Alain Delon) and his beautiful fiancée (Claudia Cardinale).' But the prince, of whom Burt Lancaster brilliantly rendered the role, treats the passage of the values and things he holds dear as natural as the season changes throughout the year.

Mr. Chou represented an era where even the worst possible taste of an aristocracy, represented by as strangely as a golden Rolls Royce, is graceful and admirable, and of dignity, totally differentiable from the deeds of the parvenus of our days. It would be sad, for anyone who is temperamentally close to these people of who Mr. Chou was one, to see the past of such an era, very much the same of those who lived through the First World War to see the Belle Epoque falter. However, as Burt Lancaster in The Leopard, it is inevitable, for only when Belle Epoque went away could the Art Deco be born out of the dissatisfaction of people to a tasteless, miserable life after the war.

The only difference in our times, perhaps, is we do not have such group of dissatisfied people. The people here love the tasteless, miserable life and are more than willing to sacrifice one's dignity and taste for endless misery of TV mini series, paparazzi, low-class information and following those whom they once despised but who become louder and wealthier though intellectually remain hallow. What a shame! We shall see no Art Deco, no Nature Naturing, no To Be Human.

一念天堂

前日下午1時許，有兩夫婦在西九龍中心7樓一酒家飲茶，期間為4歲半女兒的升學問題吵架。據報，妻子激動地向丈夫聲言信不信她會掟女落街，丈夫大概說了一句你夠膽便掟吧! 妻子隨即抱起女兒一同墮下商場，女兒被安全網救起，妻子卻穿破安全網而墮地身亡。

今次悲劇惹來社會很大震憾，有聽眾昨日致電港台節目《千禧年代》講述自身經歷，又要求社會要正視此類問題。不過, 話說主持人周融在節目中直指社會往往只同情死者，而忽略了死者本身的錯，一死了之，錯誤便被諒解，因此認為社會要正視掟女落街這件事本身，畢竟警方也已將事件列為自殺及企圖謀殺案，企圖謀殺是很嚴重的罪行。周融直言：「講出嚟好似好冷血咁，但應該譴責嘅，係個媽媽囉！」又質疑：「一個可以掟女落街的媽媽，會是一個怎樣的媽媽？」

有女聽眾旋即回應，並直指周融冷血，是過早指責和無依據地指控，甚至是否定死者的尊嚴！該聽眾更加認為若從兩性角度看，丈夫那句說話才是充滿挑釁性而導致慘劇。

其實周融原則上是說得對的。但說得對說得理性也沒用，只因香港人大多太反智, 甘於平庸, 人云亦云, 不知所謂, 不知就裏, 寧可選擇不思考，做豬, 但沒有豬的本能。只有濫情, 沒有思考、 認知愚蠢地以為理性等同冷血－皆因他們不知理性為何物。 如果尋死就是對, 死了就可以把所有錯事變成確對, 那世界必然是美好的了。因為一死以解萬惡。我們可對死者深表同情，但不能毫無理性。那才是人 － 才配是人 （Homo Sapiens）。

生與死，只是一念天堂，一念地獄吧。本質裡別無其他。

Would It be Better in 2010?

Extract from Hong Kong Economic Journal

2009年12月24日

陳琪丰

2010年庚寅年會好嗎？

這篇文章內的預測早在今年9月已經寫好並交給香港風水學會印製2010年記事簿，我當時承諾了香港風水學會到12月中以後才在報章發表這篇預測，所以今天才拿出來和大家分享。

因 為記事簿的篇幅所限，不能多寫，只能將主要預測以點狀形式寫出來。現在將這些點狀形式的預測串連起來，並附以推測的詳細易學學理，亦因篇幅關係，未必能夠 全部寫出，姑勿論預測對否，我深切希望讀者知道中國的預測學都是有易學學理支持的，本文是運用五行和八卦星象的應用加以邏輯推算出來，希望能夠做到推理和 解釋可以絲絲入扣，完全不是什麼怪力亂神之說，但因為陰陽五行和八個卦象比類成萬物，演繹哪一件事有機會應數發生時難免掛一漏萬，這也是正常不過的事。

到今天為止，我仍覺得今年9月時所作的預測內容並沒有因為已經過了三個月的政治經濟變化而有需要作出重大修改。據筆者經驗，很多來年的事多會在即年的第四季已開始陸續發生！以現時的政經發展來看，本文的2010年預測，現時已有很多已露苗頭了。

古 人說：「一年之計在於春」，二十四節氣中的立春是一年的開始，也是一年正式「出世」的日子，所以術家多以立春八字去觀察一年的變化。2010年立春的年月 日時是西曆2月4日早上6時42分之後，便正式踏入庚（天干）寅（地支）年—虎年。所以，立春前出世的小朋友仍算是牛年生肖，不是舊曆正月初一後出世便算 下一年生肖。2010年立春八字如下：

放大圖片

先看八字中金木水火土五行。四木二金二土，無水亦無火。自然界中，沒有火和水，萬物是難以生長的，換言之，2010年全世界的糧食會大失收了。所以有關糧食的股票基金是值得投資的，但小心中國的國策市，一句「繁榮穩定」，糧食價格受控，便不能加價了。

中美對抗加劇

年 月日時四柱盡是蓋頭截腳，簡單說，天干五行與地支五行不和而相剋，天干露出來的東西變成虛浮，在八字術語中，立春八字的天干有正官、正財和偏財（才）。我 的演繹是那些大官公開說的都是虛言，特別是奧巴馬和美國財長蓋特納說的！為什麼？因年干是庚金，它代表兌卦或以美國為首的西方，年干是八字第一個字，為 首，若不是奧巴馬或其財長又是誰呢？他倆要的是東方的財，主要是中國的錢，因為庚座下的寅木，代表着庚的財，木的五行方位是東方，所以這些財來自亞洲，特 別是中國，這亦可以解釋為什麼奧巴馬上任未夠一年已打破慣例出訪亞洲。庚寅年，中美直接爭吵會比過往劇烈，因為五行無水化解金（西方）木（東方）之間的對 抗，金可以生水，水可以生木，亦無火去剋制金。地支多木而金虛浮乏力，故美國財弱，美國經濟在 2010 只會上升乏力！

金股不宜長揸

明 年美國會逼中國放錢，又因為在乙木（東方）座下是酉，也是庚金的羊刃，羊刃可理解為一把有大殺傷力的刀，這把刀在不露光的地支中，即暗地捅着中國，美國會 在秋季（四柱的第三柱）暗中向中國施強壓，要取中方的錢，跟現時的政經發展推測，好可能是大力地逼人民幣大幅升值。到時中國會聽嗎？會，因八字上，乙庚會 合，即有合作的意思，何況還被人拿着刀要脅合作。但不會一下子調高，因地支木多，有力抵抗金剋之故。若以政治環境推演，中國年尾便有損財之象，莫非到時人 民幣升值？各位投資者，要小心「三更富貴客，四更落難人」了。

天干上的正偏兩財沒有實質地支支持，地支本身又金木交戰，天干為明，地支為 暗，中美都為了錢而暗地裏大罵對方是不仁不義之輩，因為木主仁，金主義。正偏兩財的五行是土，但五行無火生土，即財為無源去生旺了。源，即是持續生財解困 的能力。所以明年的什麼經濟指標的上升都難持續，什麼刺激經濟計劃，近乎廢話。故此，無源生旺的金股票不能長揸，不要賺盡，見好即收為上策。

石油屬火，火要木生，但地支只有酉金（西方）去剋木，換言之，特別西方國家都不願見油價上升，引發通脹和加息而拖垮脆弱的經濟，其他國家都會贊同美國的低息政策，因以戊己土代表，土會生金，「生」代表支持和贊同。但因地支木不弱，故油價也不會大幅回落。

桃花新聞多

年月日時四柱中第三柱的日元可以代表各國各地，其座下的酉跟時柱的卯都是桃花的化身，所以 2010 年的桃花新聞特別多而且駭人。乙坐酉叫坐殺，此殺又沖乙的祿，即時柱的卯，引申桃花新聞中的主會因桃花失去大量金錢。美國高爾夫球寵兒老虎活士便是最好的例子了。

從 八字看，五行無水火，但物極必反，有關水火的卦象反而會出事。全球多破壞性風雨和地震，特別嚴重事故包括交通意外、千年一遇的火災、水災甚至海嘯。全球糧 食大失收，糧食價格大升，通脹嚴重拖慢全球經濟復蘇步伐。水屬北方，以現時政經看，北韓恐出大事。水火都是可以逐漸擴散的五行，所以，大家便要小心流行病 毒。

趨吉方法

流年太歲在東北方及三煞在北方，家居若見太歲三煞方動土或有尖角沖射等的問題時，要特別注意家中 小兒和老人家的健康問題。流年一六八三吉星方位分別是西、東和中央位置，此三方宜通氣無阻。五黃二黑凶方在東北和西南，凶方宜靜。生肖屬寅虎及申猴者皆沖 犯太歲，可配戴玉豬以合太歲、可不用理會其他人說什麼「刑害」太歲都要化解之說，若連同什麼「刑害」（八字用語而已）都計算，十二地支當中差不多有一半都 在犯太歲，豈不是地球一半人都是犯太歲、處於憂患？！三煞方位有窗或有轉動機械、動土時，可擺設圓形金屬以預防宅外動土。明年北方大旺文昌，可置書枱和放 文竹盆栽。西南方放米白色石葫蘆或圓形金屬飾物化五黄災星和東北方放圓形銅器化二黑病符。

文　陳琪丰

View of The Day - 2600 Chalco

Currently the market just went through (or is still going through) a correction. One of the companies I mentioned a few times in 2009 has just gone to a point that is worth our attention again. Chalco (2600: HK) was closed at HKD7.40 last Friday. It has gone below any of the moving averages. Whether it has created a crack I am not sure and do not quite care about. What I do feel good is such sharp fall in price is in contrast to the general trend of the Chinese market. Yes, I am convinced that China is a Bull not an old Bear. It's a new born Bull. A new born Bull is not easily spotted. China is still an emerging economy but a super-big one. It will not be a superpower that leads the world but it will be a leading economy.

And China has a rich government. A generous one. With such a simple premise, I believe industrials are what we should bet on in 2010. Chalco is one of them. Now the price is, for me, quite low. Should start accumulating it at this level.

Courtesy: ET Net

投以冷眼

廈門大學易中天教授論先秦諸子。他說孔孟講仁義，墨子滿腔熱血，而韓非則有一雙冷眼，直面人生。 韓非把人世間的陰暗面掲露出來。 韓非認為世上那有仁愛忠恕 （如孔孟所言），那有行俠仗義 （如墨子所行）。仁愛俠義都不管用。他所見到的只是陰謀權術， 嚴刑峻法。只有這才管用，才能治世。儒家思想則多少是理想的。千百年來，中國的當權者，那個沒有韓非子的治世晢學？所以，我想我也要一雙冷眼，來看世間的人和事。向世界投以冷眼。所以這個網誌也叫「投以冷眼」。