View of The Day: 再談 2349

Before 2349, just want to mention that to my surprise, 21457 had gone up by 20% today! This was explosive....I expected it to happen some time. Just did not know it's today - timing is difficult to get right on.

Ok - 2349. Just note a couple of news on the company on ET Net:
（1）水務地產（０２３４９）公布，旗下武漢「未來城」項目首日售出９１％單位，創下武漢商品房開 盤銷售單日最高成交率。該項目於昨日開售，涉兩幢共３１４個單位，單日售出２８６伙，平均銷售價為每平方米９２００元人民幣，遠高於 同區類似樓盤。項目位於武昌區街道口商圈核心地段，為分商業、辦公、住宅部分，佔地約２﹒２萬平方米，總建築面積１４﹒７萬平方米，預計於 ２０１１年初交付，尚有約４﹒８萬平方米可售面積單位將於稍後出售。

（2）根據聯交所資料顯示，西京投資於本周四（２８日）增持水務地產（０２３４９）１００萬股或 ０﹒０１％，每股作價０﹒１２９元，總值１２﹒９萬元，最新持股量增至７％。

The problem of this company is, in the latest financials (June 2009 interims), the company name was still China Botanic Development, though the website has already been updated to China Water Properties. Obviously nothing can be seen on financial information available. We need to smell where the money goes. I am still searching for the information of its major shareholders but if the info I was given to know is correct, 2349 is mainly owned by China Water Affairs group (0855) and a number of investment funds. Only small amount of stock are with the public. Don't know what their intention is - some one or a few of them are working on something - given turnover is high. Today it was 122 m shares; yesterday it was over 600 m.

Strategy? Buy a small chunk of it. Wait and see. Same advice: 小賭怡情.

View of The Day: 21457 工行法興零零七Ｄ (認購證)

Need to re-do yesterday's view. Turnover of 21457 is way higher than the HSBC one I preferred (20492). Very well, for me, turnover is very important for me as I do not go for large profit on a trade but need to ensure it's as profitable as liquid (i.e. can offload the holding quickly). I need to see a few more days. Likely 21457 is better. Turnover on 29 March was 663.66 million shares.

View of The Day: 20492 工行滙豐零零七Ａ (認購證)

I am looking at a couple of ICBC calls. One is 20492 (HSBC - closing 26 Mar $0.137, up 9.6%) ; the other 21457 (SG - $ 0.112; flat for the day). Trading volume-the latter is higher and for actual leverage 21457 is also higher at 13.64%. But I personally like HSBC's 20492, for the implied volatility, at 34.244%, is higher - and 20492 turnover on average appears to be more consistent (higher).

I believe all the bad news for Chinese banks has been digested in the market and under the current price level ($5.70 closing 26 Mar) the upside seems way higher than the downside. Hence, it is a good idea to look at a couple of calls.

See what I get if I buy 20492 opening Monday, say, at around 0.13o, and hold it for a few days.......



20492 HSBC - ICBC Call



21457: SG - ICBC Call

巨人

潘源良有寫過這樣的詞「彼此欺欺騙騙就是平等，真真假假再沒人過問，相生竟相爭，相親不相襯，每夜每天發生。

「幾番相識我郤並未留心， 今天方知你是無缺憾， 空空一雙手，緊緊掌握你平生，濃情直教人震撼。

「然而在你所見明和暗，總有一點心來劃分，得與失都不沾身，柔情豪情才是你擁有渡着這生。

「人潮在捲轉進愁和困，恍似一堆小孩來爭，荒廢多少的光陰，何時抬頭才願意再三靜靜看真，你是個巨人。」

彼此欺欺騙騙就是平等，真真假假再沒人過問 － 這樣的歌詞，在此時此刻讀來，份外深刻。這個城市不正是欺欺騙騙？ 不正是真假不分嗎？但試想想，在一個比這城市大一百倍的國度，那裡的人千千萬萬，比這裡的人更彼此欺騙，更假裝平等，真真假假更不過問。他們像我們一樣，需要把小孩般的爭逐放下，抬頭靜靜看看。幸運地，他們有一個巨人，真的願意抬頭靜靜再三把這個爛攤子看真。他是個巨人。這裡穿西裝，喝紅酒的庸才；那個穿哲古華拉Tee－shirt，天天抬棺材但是不像哲古華拉每天都帶自己的棺材一同上路（時刻都有會死的覺悟）的人是永遠學不到的。

文革後，給「革」了的鄧小平被邀回到北京，毛澤東問他這幾年怎麼樣過﹔鄧小平回答道﹕「等。」渡過地獄般的幾年必須有一份堅忍，非每刻計算多少耕耘多少收獲者可以熬得過。

View of The Day: 誰應投機?

略讀黃國英新書<<注碼定輸贏>>。作者引述以故德國「機神 」Andre Kostolany (投機的機)，大意如下：大把錢的人，可以投機；有點錢的人，不要投機；窮到窿的人，一定要投機。所以， 我們無理由不投機。

剛剛又讀到一個day－trader的blog，覺得可以一看：

http://www.tradeblog.profitscenario.com.au/?tag=money

Let's see how 2349 and 17308 had been doing in the last couple of days. Mr. Wizard (鬼才) recommended 2349 when it was still around $0.142. It went up to $0.162 closing today. In 4 trade days it went up by 14.1%. Mr. Wizard believes that this is an explosive share so it may perhaps be a start only. Seeing RSI reach 70, I think the stock may correct before heading up again. Suddenly I remember Mr. Anthony Leung - 'What goes up must come down'. On 17308, as expected, 857 came down along with oil price, today the Rabo call was closed at $ 0.04 (down 11.1%) while 857 was down 1.45%. Look the correction may last for a few days for 857. I am thinking of taking advantage of a downward move, if 17308 comes down to around $ 0.035.

By the way, I am researching for warrants on 1398 (ICBC). The largest bank in PRC was down 1.4% to $5.66 today. Likely the FI stocks in China face a short term correction so betting on a good call when 1398 reaches some low point (say, below $5.60) is not a bad idea.

View of The Day: 富貴險中求之17308: 中油荷合零零七購 (認購證))

I always believe that 5% of your capital should be set aside for some more exciting activities. Warrant is one. PetroChina (857) need no introduction. In the past 6 months, the stock price went up and down between HKD 8.2-ish and 10.4-ish. The price was closed at 8.96 today. Is this a good price? Well, the lower the better. The price has been below all moving averages and, again, the basic stuff - RSI - loiters in the middle line. It does not seem to be particularly attractive - yet. But we should pay attention to it. Not the stock but a call warrant - 17308 Rabobank - PetroChina call, expiring 28 July 2010 with leverage ratio of 8.1x.

17308 closing at HKD 0.048, yes, 4.8 cents. Using the simple calculator provided by BNP Paribas, if 859 goes up back to 9.99, 17308 will reach 0.104, up 116.7%, with certain assumptions of implied volatility, leverage, etc. 9.99 is not an unachievable price. But you need not be that greedy as if 859 goes down back to 8.20, you will lose 50% of capital. We can wait and should act swiftly. I believe if 17308 comes down to around 0.035 or 0.03 (the underlying stock at 8.50), there is a fair chance that we can make some profit.

Please bear in mind, though, that this is a call warrant which means you can lose 100% of your capital. Therefore 5% of your capital is adequate unless you're very familiar with warrant/option trading.

Happy Investing!

View of The Day: 小賭怡情

今天 (20 March 2010) 跟投資「鬼才」午飯。寄然稱為鬼才, 自當多少有點料子。他說匯豐大班紀勤到亞洲來上班, 匯豐股票實少碰為妙。正想問因何作此言。他喝了一口壽眉, 已緩緩解釋: 匯豐亞洲業務大賺, 勢頭甚佳, 那有需他要親來督師? 身為統帥, 應到最需要大將壓陣的歐美, 重整業務才是。紀勤親來, 顯示他無大將之風, 更無大將之材。只是逃避現實, 不敢面對逆境。又自怨自艾, 說對不住股東云云。大笨象由他領軍, 甚憂矣。鬼才所言, 聽落都有其道理。

鬼才又推介2349:中國水務地產 (China Water Property Holding Ltd)。公司名稱怪怪的。他說那股票甚「歸邊」。主要股東除了本身家族之外, 都是基金。現在應儲貨, 靜待爆炸性上升。回家後稍作研究, 原來此乃華園食品。公司業務不斷蛻變, 後來引入中國水務為投資者, 改名中國植物科技, 去年見地產篷勃, 又改名水務地產.....現價便宜 (HKD 0.142), 但可否爆炸性上升, 就自行判斷吧。小注怡情，無傷大雅。

View of The Day: 420 K Wah International Holdings

On 15 December 2009, I mentioned K Wah (420): ' K Wah is an established properties developer that has its roots in Hong Kong. But its developments in Shanghai appear to be encouraging. Although the most recent result is not spectacular (Jun/2009 interim profit down 38%), prospects in the second half seem much better - sales of a Shanghai development, and the remaining units of 嘉御山 in Shatin and the holding of Galaxy Entertainment revalued. On my belief that the PRC properties market will continue to grow mildly, at current prices (HKD 2.7-2.8) that is P/E 13x, K Wah looks attractive. Anything close to HKD 2.70 is buy time.'

In the 3 months, the share price has come up and down between HKD2.90 and HKD 3.30+. It just settled at HKD 2.90 cob today. From the major indicators such as RSI and moving average (100-day 2.76 and 50-day 2.75), 2.90 appears to be too high. So my previous recommendation that 2.70 is buy time remains unchanged. Recntly Lui Chi Wo, the major shareholder, raised his shareholding to 58.39% (when price was at 2.40).

Business-wise K Wah seems to be quite active. It partnered with Sino Land (083) and acquired a piece of land in Pak Shek Kok and went with Chuang's (367) to redevelop properties on Po Shan Road. There are also many projects particularly that in Shanghai which will be released during the Exposition in the city. With p/e at 9.7x, the current price (2.90) is obviously a bit overpriced. Let's see if we can get it at around 2.70.

View of The Day: 1224 C C Land

This fave share of mine has been neglected for quite a while until, probably, these few days, for I am still researching for properties info in Chongqing and today an announcement by CC Land that the company has started selling its new residential project of 492 apartments since 8 March. It sold 412 of them on the first day with total gross area of 37,000 square metres and average sale price of CNY 4,300 per square metre. Total proceed amounted to CNY 160 m. The project completes in 2011. This project was acquired in February and located in Nanshan Mun of Pei Ling District of which the gross area is 67,000 square metres. 24,000 square metre will be for residential and commercial use.

I think this is quite a good stock for my 1% return a day: When the share dips to HKD 3.38, we buy 100,000 shares with HKD 338,000 plus 845 (commission) and others (stamp duty, etc) 500. Then we place an order at HKD 3.42 (the peak after we buy the shares is HKD 3.44). So we shall get a proceed net of all costs of about HKD 340,545. So net profit being HKD 1,200 or 0.36% - which is quite low but we play conservative enough - this HKD 1,200 would have been made within a period of 1 hour.

View of The Day 曹仁超：坐高鐵不如買高鐵

Just watched a presentation by Investor Cho (I am afraid you need to be an HKEJ subscriber to watch it). Mr Cho tried to argue that the exports of China would regain competitiveness lost in 2008 in the coming 12 years with the high speed railways (HSR) paving their way to the 2nd and 3nd-tiered cities. In the coming 12 years, about CNY 2-3 trillion will be spent on 47 railways to link up the cities countrywide. Cho reminded us that 60% of the CNY 4 trillion stimulus package in 2009 was set aside for HSR).

The latest railway, between Guangzhou and Wuhan, shortens the commutation from 8 hours by car to 3 hours. With this 'shortened distance', the businessmen who operate factories in the Zhujiang Delta can move their factories to these inland cities where the land costs 1/10th of Guangdong's and labour cost is 33% lower (CNY 800 versus CNY 1,200 in Guangdong) - as a result, Cho claims, the cost of the goods will come down by 10%. It is this 10% that makes Chinese goods competitive again. On the other hand, the land on which the emptied factory is built can be re-developed to become expensive residential buildings.

For me, why 坐高鐵不如買高鐵 is correct is because while the hardware of the HSR is world-class, the software remains third world. Making money out of a developing nation is relatively easier but enjoying one's life in a first world country is why we need to make money.

Buying 1766 can make money, yes, that's great news, but if I want to enjoy a trip on a high-speed train, I shall opt for Shinkansen.

By the way, people tend to point out that the Japanese Shinkansen is the 'slowest' among HSR (average about 160-180+ mph, compared with China's Harmony with top speed over 200 mph (330 km/hr). It is because due to restriction by law on noise, Bullet Trains cannot go in full speed. The 'environmental' restrictions also make Japanese rail-makers hinge speed improvement on aerodynamics and material science, but not the power of the machine.

Shinkansen N700 series

1% Return A Day

What if I make a 1% return a day?

Take 420 (Fountain Set) as an example. If you look today's range, it is quite narrow. Trading volume: 2.348 million shares. I think we can make some money out of it. If I use HKD 270,000 to buy 200,000 shares at 1.35, this could be done because there're more than a few times that the share price hit 1.35 in the morning then you immediately sell it at 1.37. You make HKD 2,040 or 0.75%. This is less than 1% because the range of this stock is narrow. But this is a safer bet. If you can't sell it at 1.37, Fountain Set can be brought forward overnight. I believe HKD 1.35 is a very good price for this stock. For stock with a wider trading range, it is more likely you make use of this method.

If you spot a couple of transactions that can make a few thousand dollars for you each day, you can live a decent, free life. I am thinking of a capital of HKD 0.5 million and HKD 5,000 return a day, which is about HKD 1 million a year.

Let me warn you. This is not easy. It takes more than hindsight to do it (like the above example). I am trying to think of a model that can sustain - at least for a while (i.e., it works as long as some long-term trend is prevailing in a certain period).

Source: ET Net Hong Kong

View of The Day (420 Fountain Set (Holdings) Ltd)

Haven't touched this topic for a while. My fave again - an industrial company. This time, it is a textile and garment firm which has quite a long operating history. Core business includes cotton spinning, yarn dyeing and fabrics manufacturing. This seems unattractive - pretty unglamorous. And it is loss-making - in the second consecutive year.

Full year result as at August 2009 showed a net loss of HKD 48.93 million (or 6.2 cents per share) but the loss had narrowed significantly compared with the previous year (2998: - HKD 397 m). And it was, in fact, the tax expense that dragged the bottom line into red (pre-tax profit HKD 8.28 m; 2008 pre-tax loss - HKD 349 m). With revenues of HKD 5.45 billion, gross profit was HKD 844 m, which is not bad at all, albeit it still was down 10.7% year-on-year). Down significantly y-o-y, SG&A expenses were still high - in any case this is a labour-intensive industry. Though the operation had shown marked improvement, the profitability last year hinged upon a profit of disposal of fixed assets (HKD 104 m). Otherwise the core operation was still loss-making.

This does not truly look attractive. However, there are a couple of attractions in it.

First, it's cheap (traded at HKD 1.3-ish, the price/book ratio = 0.35; that is to say the stock price equals 35% of asset value.) But I have to make it clear. Being cheap per se is not an attraction. But given industrials may be in for this year, it would be good to look at some industrial stocks that are overlooked in the past few years and possibly spotted by investment funds. This is one.

Secondly, I think the shares are 'marginalised', that is, a large share 42.9% is owned by the founding Ha family and the second largest shareholder being Templeton Fund (close to 8% shareholding). It is likely that the Ha family will seek to privatise the firm if the share price is consistently well below the asset value. Therefore, at this point (1.3-1.4/share), it is worth accumulating some so whether we bet on the market suddenly spotting this stock or the founding family deciding to privatise it would sound sensible. While privatisation gives you probably no more than 20-30% profit, being a favourite by investment funds would mean an explosive upturn for 420.

Source: ET Net Hong Kong

義犬報恩

七八十代有一日本動畫叫義犬報恩 (A Dog of Flanders), 是由19世紀英國作家薇達 (Ouida)的短篇小說改編。薇達原名 Marie Louise de la Ramee, 在英國以外好像不太有名。

故事話說小孤兒尼路 (Nello) 和爺爺 Jehan 相依維命。二人住在比利時安特惠普市(Antwerp)市郊的小村。一天尼路發現一隻被毒打垂死的狗, 遂把牠接回家照料, 又把牠喚作巴特拉(Patrasche). 在爺爺的悉心料理下, 巴特拉痊癒得很快。尼路和牠成為好友形影不離。而巴特拉更幫手拉車子送牛奶。

尼路愛上富有人家的女兒Aloise。Aloise家人當然反對。尼路熱愛繪畫, 參加安特惠普舉行的繪畫比賽, 但落選了。不久, 爺爺去世了。尼路又被指引起火警。生活更形艱苦。無家可歸, 尼路走到安市的路雲大教堂(Loewen Cathedral), 欲一睹魯賓士(Rubens)的<基督「上架」>(The Elevation of the Cross)。但身無分文的他無法入場, 最後和巴特拉凍死街上。

日本動畫的編劇, 見原著主人公凍死街頭, 未免太過淒慘。在動畫中把結局改成, 那個風雪的晚上, 尼路和巴特拉到了大教堂, 發現大門開了。尼路進了教堂, 終於一嘗心願, 看到大師的傑作.....最後尼路乘著爺爺送牛奶的木車子, 由巴特拉拉著, 在晨光中圍著教堂參天的鐘樓蜿蜒奔向天國.......第二天, 人們發現尼路和巴特拉躺在名畫之前安祥死去了。

看一看動畫的開場, 清麗漂亮, 毫無傷感:

http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMTExOTI4NzA0.html

日本編劇把結局改了, 讓路雲主教堂的大門開著。大門常開, 不正是基督教會的精神嗎?

精衛填海

某名拍賣行拍賣「漢奸」汪精衛的書法墨寶。該行國畫部某專家說, 「汪精衛雖被喻為大漢奸, 但其文才洋溢, 書法亦相當有個性...」那專家的意思是身為「漢奸」, 不可能寫得一手好字; 最重要的是 (這是大多數同胞的劣根思想), 身為ｒ漢奸」, 無理由寫字寫得好過我。但偏偏汪精衛得確寫得一手好字 -- 一定好過大多數香港人。當然也比年宵廉價愛國人仕寫的揮春好過千萬倍。

汪精衛是何許人? 年輕一輩未必知道。1910年17歲的汪精衛在北京密譟刺殺攝政王載澧, 事漏被捕, 後被判終身監禁。寫了「慷慨歌燕市, 從容作楚囚, 引刀成一快, 不負少年頭。」一詩。滿清滅亡後, 汪氏被釋放, 更加入政界。

汪精衛滿腔熱血, 以推翻滿清為志。後來認識了孫中山, 加入同盟會，直到1938年12月, 汪精衛公開投日。1940年在南京成立國民政府。1944年, 在日本病逝。

汪精衛是「漢奸」, 歷史已有定論。但歷史是勝利者寫的, 那定論必然是勝利者的「定論」(儘管那勝利者只屬「慘勝」)。或許他真的是投日救國, 真的人如其名, 「精衛填海」。這由歷家定奪吧。

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筆者按: 「精衛填海」出自山海經。話說女娃是炎帝的女兒。有一次她到東海遊玩，海上忽然刮起風暴，她不幸淹死海裏。死後她化作了一隻鳥，形像烏鴉，頭上有花紋，白咀而赤足，名叫「精衛」，住在北方的發鳩山上。她悲恨年輕的生命被無情的大海奪去，因此每天口含西山的小石子、小樹枝，投到東海裏去，要把大海填平。寓意明知不可為而為之。

天南地北

3月2日，信報副刊《飽食集》米松君有短文一篇。特此分享。

有消息稱，有老翁偕同親人往東莞度歲。期間老翁死亡，兩名孫子冒寒乘火車包着其屍體孭回四川。

在香港卻有男子，在祖母逝世後向社署申領得一萬多元殮葬費，將之輸清光，令先人遲遲未能入葬。

人之性惡, 狗鎮人間

丹麥導演馮卓賢(Las von Trier)有一齣叫Dogville (2003) 的電影。我喜歡稱它ｒ狗鎮人間」(港譯人間狗鎮, 總覺得稍缺霸氣)。這是一套很難「捱」的電影。片長180分鐘。片中只有一個場景–一個籃球埸館般大的廠景, 地上劃上了一個小鎮的平面圖, 及少量傢俬佈景。那些演員「出入」門口都只是做開門的動作, 而根本沒有門。影片大多時候都是「講多過做」。

Dogville故事描述一九三○年代在美國洛磯山脈附近(科羅拉多州?)的狗鎮，住著一群純樸守法的村民。一天夜晚，嘉麗絲（Grace) (Nicole Kidman飾）為逃避黑幫追捕來到這個小鎮。狗鎮的居民收留了她, 她亦為他們打工作回報。但隨看追捕嘉麗絲的人行動越來越激烈, 狗鎮的居民亦要嘉麗絲付出更多, 作為收留她的條件。本來善良的人都慢慢露出邪惡的面目。嘉麗絲終究明白善惡並無必然。但最終狗鎮亦因離棄嘉麗絲要付出沉重的代價........(影片最後20分鐘的確很緊湊)。除了人之性惡之外, Dogville亦帶點基督教的原罪觀。看似善良的人骨子裡都隱藏著罪惡。最後捨離恩寵(Grace), 墮入深淵。

孟子說人性本善，但沒有依據。君不見人間罪惡滿盈？人性本善, 像信口雌黃。荀子同為儒家正統，但他則認為「人之性惡，其善者偽也。」（性惡篇）。可見荀子是個實徵論者(positivist)。「偽」，不是假的意思。而是人為。什麼人呢？聖人也。荀子認為人的善來自後天的努力和教化。「偽」者「文理興隆也。」(禮論)。聖人制訂禮法(即道德律法)給他人跟從, 從而壓抑人本性的惡。因為如果只跟著人性而行, 人性有欲, 一只欲望得不到滿足, 人就去追逐, 追逐沒有止境, 就產生爭奪和混亂。所以必須立禮。禮, 亦是制度, 即「貴賤有等, 長幼有差, 貧富輕重皆有稱者」。這是荀子心目中的理想、尊卑有序的社會制度。荀子的學說在先秦之後被束諸高閣, 實為可惜。

像成龍的「太亂要管論」? 末免太抬舉大哥了吧?